MARKET TIMING REPORT

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Does Stock Market Timing Work?
Market Timing  >  Market Timing Signal  >  Market Timing Report

Does stock market timing actually work?

The effectiveness of market timing is a hotly debated topic throughout the investment community with strong opinions dominating both sides of the argument.  Several research studies have been conducted and conclude that market timing can work.

Research Studies on the effectiveness of Market Timing

"The Truth About Timing"

Published by Jacqueline Doherty, published in Barrons in 2001 studied market timing as a capital preservation strategy and studied what the effect would be if an investor could avoid the 5 worst days of each calendar year over a 25 year period.  Her conclusion was that if you could time the market in this fashion, your results would be 85 times greater than a buy and hold investor over the 25 year period.  Although the practicality of achieving this result in the real world in difficult, it highlights the fact that market timing can assist with preserving your capital in downturns, allows more capital to be invested in upturns, and has a dramatic compounding effect over time.

"A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation"

Published in the Journal of Wealth Management, Feb 2009 concluded that if an investor used a monthly system of market timing with a simple timing indicator that the would have improved their risk-adjusted returns and avoided several devastating bear markets.  The conclusion noted that practicing a monthly market timing system would gave generated equity like returns, with the volatility and risk of bond volatility.

"Does Asset Allocation Policy Explain 40%, 90%, or 100% of Performance?"

Published by Roger G. Ibbotson and Paul D. Kaplan was published in The Financial Analysts Journal in January/February of 2000 and concluded asset allocation accounts for over 90% of the variability of a portfolios return, and 40% of return variations across different fund asset allocation levels.


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How to Profit From Stock Market Timing

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